Fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea, one of the oldest water bodies in the world, are among the most discussed issues by scientists in recent years. It is reported that the level of the sea, which plays a special role in shaping the economy of the Caspian countries, will drop significantly by the end of the century. D.Sc. in geography Said Safarov, Head of the Department of Hydrometeorology of the Caspian Sea at the Institute of Geography acad. Hasan Aliyev spoke about the decrease in the water level in the Caspian Sea and its causes.
The level of the Caspian Sea is subject to constant fluctuations.
Since the Caspian Sea does not have a direct connection with the world's oceans, its level was subject to constant fluctuations. The lowest level of the Caspian Sea in the last millennium was in the 10th century, when it was 35 meters below the ocean level. The highest level (22 meters below sea level) was recorded in the 14th and 18th centuries. In subsequent centuries, there were periods of lowering and raising the level of the Caspian Sea, and the amplitude of centuries-old le In the 20th century, sea levels changed dramatically twice. Between 1930 and 1977, the level of the Caspian Sea dropped by 3 meters and reached an absolute minimum for the last 400 years (-29 meters). However, since 1977, it began to rise sharply, and by 1995 the level increase was 2.5 meters. The sea level did not undergo sharp fluctuations in the subsequent period. Currently, the sea level is close to -28 meters, that is, it is 28 meters below sea level.
Sharp changes in the level have a serious impact on the economy and ecology of the Caspian countries, so their long-term forecasting is of great importance. Unfortunately, there are still no reliable methods that allow predicting sea level fluctuations for a long time ahead, and in most cases they are of an inversion nature level fluctuations varied within 2-4 meters.
For example, when sea levels fell between 1930 and 1977, most scientists and experts predicted that levels would continue to fall in the future. But these predictions did not come true, as after 1977 sea levels began to rise sharply. At the time, most scientists predicted that sea levels would continue to rise, but after 1995, levels began to fall again and continue to this day.
Pessimistic forecasts of German and Dutch scientists
Scientists are currently making pessimistic predictions about a catastrophic drop in the level of the Caspian Sea by the end of the century. In this regard, the most frightening is the forecast made by German and Dutch scientists in an article published in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment.
Thus, according to various scenarios, it is predicted that by the end of the 21st century the level of the Caspian Sea will drop by 9-18 meters.
Regardless of whether the forecasts come true or not, the Caspian countries have a great responsibility for preserving the marine ecosystem and biodiversity, improving the ecological state of the Caspian region.