Following the period of intense rainfall and unstable weather conditions observed across different parts of the country, various forecasts suggest that the summer months will be warmer than usual. In particular, July and August are expected to be hotter. But what weather conditions can Azerbaijan expect in the coming months

In a statement to Pravda.az, Said Safarov, Head of the Caspian Hydrometeorology Department at the Institute of Geography and Doctor of Geographical Sciences, noted that since March this year, precipitation levels have exceeded normal values both in the region and especially in the Caspian coastal areas of Azerbaijan.

According to him, a sharp increase in temperatures is expected from the end of June through July and August:

“This is associated with the El Niño phenomenon occurring in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Under normal conditions, trade winds blow across the equatorial Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, they move from the northeast toward the equator, while in the Southern Hemisphere, they blow from the southeast toward the equator. As a result of their convergence, these regions receive significant amounts of precipitation, which in some areas can reach up to 20 meters annually.

At the same time, these trade winds push warm surface waters westward away from the coast of South America, allowing cooler water from the ocean depths to rise to the surface. This process is known as upwelling. It is a natural phenomenon that helps prevent excessive increases in global temperatures.

However, there are periods when these winds weaken or reverse direction. Atmospheric pressure becomes higher in the central Pacific, while lower pressure develops along the South American coast. As a result, winds begin blowing from west to east, causing warm water masses accumulated in the central Pacific to move toward South America. This raises sea surface temperatures along the South American coastline and warms the surrounding air as well.

Such warming of ocean waters reduces oxygen levels and deteriorates water quality, leading to fish mortality in some areas.”

Safarov further explained that increased precipitation has been observed in certain regions, including Azerbaijan, the Caucasus, and parts of Russia. In the following months, however, the heat released into the atmosphere by these unusually warm Pacific waters will spread through global atmospheric circulation patterns, contributing to a rise in global temperatures.

“The extent of this warming depends on the pressure difference between the western equatorial Pacific and the waters off the coast of South America. The greater this difference, the stronger the effect. This phenomenon is known as El Niño.

As a result, forecasts indicate that global temperatures may rise by more than two degrees above normal. It is difficult to determine exactly how much temperatures will increase in Azerbaijan, but they are likely to be about 1.5 degrees above the seasonal norm.

Those making these forecasts believe the impact will be more noticeable than in previous years. Summer heat could become particularly intense. Since March, air temperatures have generally remained below normal. Therefore, the expected heat during the summer months may not only compensate for this deficit but could even push annual average temperatures above the norm.”

pravda.az