This spring was significantly wetter than previous years. On some days, the amount of precipitation exceeded the monthly norm several times over. Frequent reports also emerged about intense downpours and continuous rainfall in countries neighboring Azerbaijan. It was even reported that Iran’s shrinking Lake Urmia had begun to recover. But what is the situation in the Caspian Sea? The shallowing of the Caspian Sea has become a major topic of discussion in recent years. Has the unusually high level of precipitation this spring helped solve or alleviate the problem?

Speaking to Medianews.az, Head of the Caspian Sea Geography Laboratory at the Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Science and Education, Doctor of Geographical Sciences Said Safarov, stated that during the spring months, particularly in the eastern regions of Azerbaijan, including the coastal areas along the Caspian Sea, precipitation levels were several times higher than the monthly average.

“We also heard about several episodes of heavy rainfall in Russia, including the Republic of Dagestan. These coastal regions of the Caspian Sea that received abundant precipitation mainly form the basins of the Kura, Terek, and several smaller rivers. The Kura is a major river for us. However, its role in the Caspian Sea’s water balance is relatively small. To put this into perspective, while the Volga River’s average annual discharge is approximately 250 cubic kilometers, the Kura River’s annual discharge reaches a maximum of about 15 cubic kilometers. Although the Kura’s flow this year has approached that maximum level, over the past four to five years its discharge had fallen significantly, with only 4-5 cubic kilometers of water reaching the Caspian Sea annually.

From this perspective, the heavy precipitation falling on the western coastal areas of the Caspian Sea does not play a major role in changes to the sea’s water level. As for the Volga River, which contributes more than 80 percent of the water flowing into the Caspian Sea, available data indicate that its basin also received above-average precipitation during the winter months, particularly snowfall. As a result, the rate of decline in the Caspian Sea’s level has slowed somewhat. Although a certain increase in the sea level has been observed compared to January of this year, the level still remains lower than during the corresponding period last year. This means that the heavy snowfall in the Volga basin during winter and the intense rainfall recorded along the western shores of the Caspian in spring have somewhat weakened the trend of rapid decline. Nevertheless, it is still too early to speak of a real rise in the Caspian Sea’s level.”

According to Safarov, average annual water-level figures for the Caspian Sea will be calculated at the end of the year.

“Only then will it be possible to compare the situation with previous years, clearly assess the dynamics, and determine the extent of any increase or decrease compared to last year. For now, we can only compare monthly indicators with the corresponding periods of the previous year, and these comparisons show that the sea level remains below last year’s level.

The main reason is global warming, particularly the above-normal temperatures in the Volga basin. This is not only a problem for 2026 but a broader issue associated with warmer climatic periods. During hot months, evaporation intensifies, and water consumption also increases due to higher temperatures. As a result, the amount of water reaching the Caspian Sea decreases.

This is because the flow of the Volga River is regulated by more than 12 large reservoirs built along its course. These reservoirs, covering a total area of more than 36,000 square kilometers, contain hydroelectric power stations. Russian specialists strive to maintain water levels in these reservoirs and prevent them from dropping. To preserve those levels, they reduce the volume of water released into the Caspian Sea. This is one of the main reasons why the problem of the Caspian Sea’s shallowing persists.

In addition, as temperatures continue to rise, evaporation from the Caspian Sea’s surface is steadily increasing. Although the weather is currently relatively cool, this is only temporary. Higher temperatures than last year are expected during the upcoming months of July and August.”

medianews.az