During the late-night hours yesterday, hail fell in some areas of Baku as well as in several other regions of the country. This natural phenomenon, considered rare for the capital city, became widely discussed on social media and raised various questions about its possible causes. Some claims suggested that geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly the potential confrontation in Iran–US relations, could have affected weather conditions. But is the hail recorded in Baku truly related to regional developments, or is it purely connected to climate change and atmospheric circulation?

Speaking to News24.az on the matter, leading researcher at the Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Science and Education of Azerbaijan, PhD in Geography Hasan Nabiyev, stated that atmospheric phenomena such as hail, lightning, and thunderstorms are rarely observed in Baku.

 “Thirty or forty years ago, such events were almost never recorded. However, as a result of climate change observed worldwide in recent decades, the frequency of such atmospheric phenomena has increased both in Baku and in other parts of Azerbaijan. The main reason for these processes is related to changes in atmospheric circulation and the eastward shift of synoptic system trajectories. Although such events are mainly characteristic of mountainous and foothill areas, they are considered rare for Baku. The formation of hail over the capital yesterday was connected with the development of cumulonimbus rain clouds.”

The institute representative noted that hail, lightning, thunderstorms, and heavy rains are more frequently observed particularly in March, April, and May.

“The arrival of these clouds into the region is mainly linked to southern cyclones forming in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These cyclones increase the activity of atmospheric fronts over the Caucasus region, strengthen pressure differences, and create favorable conditions for the formation of hail along with heavy rainfall. To some extent, changes in the city’s microrelief may also contribute to such events. In recent years, the increase in the number of high-rise buildings in Baku has also led to greater precipitation.”

 According to the expert, there is no serious basis for concerns that conflicts occurring in the region could affect Azerbaijan’s climate.

“The current conflicts are mainly local in nature and do not cover a wide geographical area, therefore they cannot directly affect climate systems. Explosions and fires in conflict zones may release certain amounts of smoke and particles into the atmosphere, but these factors are not powerful enough to change the direction of global or regional air currents. Missile explosions and fires do not affect the movement trajectories of air masses.”

Hasan Nabiyev added that possible climate impacts mainly depend on the direction of air mass movement.

“If, theoretically, air currents were directed from the conflict zone toward Azerbaijan, some particles released into the atmosphere during explosions and fires could reach the region with those air masses. However, even in that case, their impact on the climate would be very weak and not noticeable. Air masses arriving in Azerbaijan from the south are rarely observed. During the summer season, tropical air masses may occasionally enter the country. At present, however, it is spring, and during this period air masses mainly enter the country from the north and west.”