This strong event could have a significant impact on precipitation and temperature patterns, increasing the risks of floods, droughts and anomalously hot weather.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has stated that El Niño has the potential to seriously affect communities and economies around the world. She noted that the consequences and destruction caused by droughts and floods are already being observed.

So, what impact could this climate phenomenon have on Azerbaijan and its economy? What measures should be taken to prevent or mitigate these impacts and risks?

Speaking to Teleqraf on the issue, MP Azer Badamov said that it is difficult to determine the direct impact of climate changes occurring in the Pacific Ocean basin on the climate of the South Caucasus.

According to him, the region's climate is influenced by air masses coming from the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

“From this perspective, it is not easy to say exactly how the El Niño climate phenomenon will affect weather conditions in our country. However, we must bear in mind that we live on Earth, and a climate event occurring anywhere in the world cannot be isolated from the global climate system. In order to prevent global warming and preserve the existing climate system, the wars that are expanding around the world day by day must first of all be brought to an end.”

Meanwhile, Said Safarov, Head of the Laboratory of Geography of the Caspian Sea at the Institute of Geography and Doctor of Geographical Sciences, said that significant changes are currently occurring in the difference in water temperature and atmospheric pressure between the central Pacific Ocean and its eastern part, namely the coast of South America.

“As ocean waters continue to warm and this heat is transferred to the atmosphere, global temperatures increase. This manifests itself differently in different regions. In other words, while some areas experience anomalously hot summers, noticeable changes may not occur in other regions.

This change also applies to precipitation patterns. As El Niño intensifies, some areas receive excessive amounts of precipitation. Localized precipitation can result in very intense rainfall over short periods. This, in turn, leads to floods, flash floods and other related adverse events,” he emphasized.

According to S. Safarov, the impact of El Niño on temperatures in Azerbaijan was not particularly pronounced during the summer months:

“Although air temperatures increased during some ten-day periods, a decrease was observed again in the following days. While there was no significant increase in temperature fluctuations, there were sharp changes in precipitation patterns. In particular, localized rainfall in early and mid-spring, as well as on certain days during the summer, caused floods and flash floods. For example, we observed this trend in the severe flooding incidents that occurred in Baku at the end of March and beginning of April, and later in Zagatala, causing significant material losses.”

He noted that this climate process is expected to continue until February 2027:

“The current trend suggests that autumn will be somewhat warmer than average, while winter will be mild. Naturally, a sharp drop in temperature and snowfall on individual days cannot be ruled out. However, the overall picture provides grounds for making such a forecast. Nevertheless, depending on the strengthening or weakening of other factors occurring during this period, the actual outcome may differ somewhat from these forecasts.”

Although the transition to green energy and the efficient use of water resources are being proposed globally as measures to mitigate these risks, local experts are currently focusing primarily on monitoring the process.

 teleqraf.az