Zaur Imrani, Director of the Institute of Geography, answered questions from the Teleqraf Information Agency about the Institute’s research on the Caspian Sea and the work currently being carried out in this field.

— Mr. Imrani, during Baku Climate Action Week 2026, a UN representative warned of “dramatic changes” in the Caspian Sea. How does the Institute of Geography assess this warning? Is the threat imminent?

— Recently, our Institute has been conducting extensive scientific research into the transformation of the Caspian Sea’s coastal landscapes, as well as the causes of changes in sea level.

There is no doubt that this issue is highly relevant today. However, given the cyclical nature of fluctuations in the Caspian Sea’s water level, we can hope that the current decline will eventually be followed by a rise, or at least that the rate of decline will become less pronounced than it is today.

Uncontrolled Use of River Water Seriously Affects Sea Levels

— You mentioned that a rise in sea level is possible. Do the Institute’s latest studies and available scientific evidence support this optimistic possibility, or has global warming disrupted the Caspian Sea’s natural cycle?

— It would be incorrect to attribute changes in the Caspian Sea’s water level solely to global warming. All the natural and anthropogenic factors influencing this process must be considered comprehensively. Compared with previous periods of falling and rising water levels, the main feature of the current phase is the increased impact of human activity. In our view, this growing anthropogenic influence may be considered one of the main reasons why the Caspian Sea’s water level is currently declining at a faster rate.

— How exactly does this human impact manifest itself? What shortcomings exist in the use of water resources from rivers flowing into the Caspian Sea, particularly the Volga River?

— The results of our numerous observations indicate that one of the main reasons for the decline in the Caspian Sea’s water level is the inefficient use of river water. As a rule, river discharge is higher in the upper reaches. However, as a result of uncontrolled and inefficient use of water resources, the volume of water reaching the middle and lower reaches of rivers decreases significantly. We believe that this factor has a considerable impact on the reduction in river inflows into the Caspian Sea and, consequently, on the decline in sea level.

— If the decline in water levels continues, what could be the most serious effects on ecosystems and biodiversity?

— Naturally, changes in water levels can lead to significant transformations in the ecosystem. As water levels decline, ecosystems characterised by aquatic conditions may gradually transition towards continental conditions. However, with proper management of the area and the implementation of adaptation measures, such a transformation is not necessarily expected to lead to catastrophic consequences. Since ecosystems are living and dynamic systems, if the Caspian Sea’s water level rises again in the future, they may be able to return, to some extent, to their original state.

— Mr. Imrani, what is the main reason for the uncertainty surrounding 10–20-year forecasts for the Caspian Sea? Is there a lack of openness in data exchange with scientific institutions in other Caspian littoral countries, and how does this affect forecasting?

— To date, despite the use of instrumental observation and measurement methods, it has not been possible to predict changes in the Caspian Sea’s water level accurately. Approximate forecasts are generally presented under different scenarios because the process is highly complex.

At the same time, the possible influence of tectonic factors on water-level fluctuations cannot be ruled out. Changes in seismic activity, particularly in the southern Caspian region, and the recent activity of mud volcanoes — the latest eruption of the Otman-Bozdag mud volcano being one example — make it necessary to conduct serious research in this area.

We regularly conduct scientific research in cooperation with scientific institutions in other Caspian littoral countries and jointly publish articles in reputable scientific journals. Our most recent study of this kind was an article entitled “Climate Trends and Associated Atmospheric Circulation Indices in the Azerbaijan Sector of the Caspian Sea,” co-authored with the Institute of Geography and Water Security of Kazakhstan and published in the Journal of Water and Climate Change. Our scientific research in this field is continuing.

Comprehensive Scientific Monitoring of Water Levels, Shorelines, Erosion and Salinisation Is Essential

— What urgent scientific monitoring measures are needed to reduce the scale of potential disasters in Azerbaijan’s coastal areas? What research projects and expeditions are currently being carried out by the staff of the Institute under your leadership?

— The Caspian Sea has always been a priority area of focus for the Institute of Geography, and expeditions in this field are regularly conducted during different seasons of the year. Two projects related to the Caspian Sea are currently underway: “The Impact of Water Balance Components and Climatic Indicators on Caspian Sea Level Fluctuations under Global Climate Variability” and “Transformation of the Coastal Zone and Environmental Risks in the Azerbaijan Sector.”

To reduce risks in Azerbaijan’s coastal areas, comprehensive scientific monitoring is required, covering water levels, shorelines, erosion, river flows, groundwater, salinisation and landscape changes. Our Institute’s staff are consistently working in this direction.

— The emergence of the new Rybachy Island in Kazakhstan’s Mangystau Region is a significant signal from the perspective of the Caspian Sea’s environmental and geographical conditions. Could new islands emerge in Azerbaijan’s territorial waters in the near future, or could existing islands expand significantly?

— Rather than full-sized islands, the emergence of small islets cannot be ruled out. If the Caspian Sea’s water level continues to decline, new islets may emerge in Azerbaijan’s shallow coastal areas, particularly around the Absheron Peninsula and Gizilagaj Bay, while the area of existing islands may also expand. However, continuous satellite and GIS monitoring is required to forecast the scale and timing of these changes accurately.

We Are Compiling Azerbaijan’s Roads and Water Bodies into a Unified Catalogue

— Mr. Imrani, have you conducted research into the green energy potential of the liberated territories and the country as a whole? What scientific results have been achieved in this field? In addition, what are the Institute’s most important scientific objectives and plans?

— One of our reports concerns solar energy modelling and the absorption of solar radiation, which provided the basis for the development of a Global Solar Atlas. We also have two reports identifying the installation heights and orientations of wind turbines. Our published monographs address ways to overcome Azerbaijan’s energy challenges, as well as the planning of alternative energy systems based on solar heat and wind direction.

As for our objectives, we are compiling Azerbaijan’s geographical data, road networks and water bodies into a unified catalogue by the end of the year. We are measuring water evaporation in the Caspian Sea and calculating the solar and wind energy potential along the Baku–Turkmenbashi route. Against the backdrop of climate change, we are also investigating the water balance of rivers in our country, particularly in the Lesser Caucasus region, using modern methods.

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