Autumn has already begun in Azerbaijan, and temperatures are gradually falling. In recent years, global climate change has contributed to anomalous weather conditions around the world, making many people curious about what this autumn will be like and what kind of weather conditions Azerbaijan can expect. What awaits us in the coming months? Will this autumn be wetter than normal, or will dry conditions prevail? What do forecasts indicate about precipitation levels

Speaking to Telegraph, Hasan Nabiyev, Senior Researcher at the Climate Department of the Institute of Geography, said that weather conditions tend to be highly variable during autumn because it is a transitional season.

According to him, increased solar activity contributes to the recurrence of meridional atmospheric processes, which can cause sharp changes in weather conditions across the country.

“On September 23, the Sun is directly overhead at the equator. Both hemispheres receive equal amounts of sunlight, and day and night become approximately equal in length. During this period, weather conditions become highly variable, strong winds occur, rainfall increases, and water levels in rivers rise.

In general, precipitation in Azerbaijan has two observed seasonal maxima. The main maximum occurs in spring, while the second maximum is observed in autumn. These precipitation events are mainly associated with cold air masses entering the country from northern areas.”

The expert emphasized that the intensification of meridional processes in the atmospheric circulation during this period increases the intrusion of cold air masses into Azerbaijan:

“This can lead to an increase in precipitation and, under favorable conditions, may result in flooding, inundation and flash-flood events.

In recent decades, there has been a frequent intrusion of southern cyclones moving from the southwest - from the eastern Mediterranean-toward the east and northeast into the territory of Azerbaijan. These cyclones contribute to increased precipitation and can lead to a number of hazardous natural events.

However, it is very difficult to make a definitive assessment of the amount and intensity of precipitation or to determine whether precipitation will be below or above normal. These are long-range forecasts. Such forecasting remains one of the most difficult problems and one that has not yet been fully resolved. The reliability of such forecasts is still relatively low.

teleqraf.az