In recent years, the water level of the Caspian Sea has been declining rapidly. This downward trend, which began particularly in 1995, is associated with various regional factors. The current situation is negatively affecting the Caspian Sea’s ecosystem and economy and raising serious questions about the future of the sea.

Elnur Safarov, an expert on Caspian Sea research at the IDEA Public Union, coordinator of CASPISNET, Head of the International Cooperation Sector at the Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Science and Education, and PhD in Geography, answered questions from the Teleqraf Information Agency on the subject.

The interview is presented below:

— Mr. Safarov, how would you assess the current environmental condition of the Caspian Sea? What are its most serious environmental problems?

— The environmental problems of the Caspian Sea are multifaceted: declining water levels, loss of biodiversity, anthropogenic impacts, and pollution risks.

— What are the main reasons for the decline in the sea level in recent years?

— Changes in the level of the Caspian Sea are determined by its water balance. The main components of the incoming part of the water balance are the volume of water brought by rivers (river discharge) and precipitation falling on the sea surface. The outgoing part consists mainly of evaporation from the sea surface and the flow of seawater into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay.

Studies show that since 1995, the main causes of the decline in the sea level have been a significant decrease in river discharge, particularly the amount of water entering the sea from the Volga River, as well as increased evaporation from the sea surface.

— In one of your statements, you referred to the share of atmospheric precipitation in the Caspian Sea’s water balance. It is known that rainfall on the sea surface accounts for approximately 20% of the total water input. Although occasional heavy rainfall has recently been observed in Azerbaijan, particularly in coastal areas, the sea level continues to decline. Why is regional precipitation insufficient to save the Caspian Sea?

— There are several reasons for this. First of all, more than 80% of the water brought into the Caspian Sea by rivers comes from the Volga. Therefore, changes in precipitation outside its basin, including rainfall in Azerbaijan’s coastal areas, do not have a significant impact on the overall water balance.

The second reason is that although above-normal precipitation fell over river basins, including the Volga River basin, during the first half of this year, the expected increase in the sea level did not occur. The main reasons for this are intensified evaporation from reservoirs built along rivers due to warmer weather, as well as a sharp increase in anthropogenic impacts on the hydrological regime of rivers.

The scale of these impacts has increased so significantly in recent years that even when precipitation is close to or slightly above normal levels, it is difficult to expect a noticeable rise in the sea level.

— What specific impacts does climate change have on the Caspian Sea?

— Climate change directly affects the Caspian Sea. In recent years, a noticeable increase has been recorded both in air temperatures over the sea and in the temperature of the water surface, which has intensified evaporation from the surface.

At the same time, a decrease in the amount of precipitation falling on the sea surface has been observed. Climate warming increases evaporation from reservoirs in river basins and sharply increases demand for water. All these factors are among the main drivers contributing to the decline in the sea level.

The increase in water-surface temperature is causing a reduction in the area and thickness of the ice cover in the Northern Caspian, which negatively affects the seal population. During the summer months, particularly in coastal waters, a sharp rise in temperature causes oxygen deficiency, which can result in the death of juvenile fish.

Thus, climate change is placing serious physical and biological stress on the Caspian Sea ecosystem.

— You study the level and ecology of the Caspian Sea using satellite methods. When viewed from space, what is the most alarming and critical change you can observe in the Caspian Sea?

— From space, the most critical changes are associated with the rapid decline in the water level, a sharp reduction in the surface area of the sea, the retreat of the coastline toward the sea, the reduction of ice cover, and the gradual expansion of polluted areas.

This indicates that the region’s ecosystem could face serious threats in the future.

— Which coastal areas of Azerbaijan have been most visibly affected by the shallowing of the Caspian Sea?

— The decline in the Caspian Sea’s water level has most severely affected the Absheron Peninsula, the Baku–Sumgait coastal zone, the Neftchala and Lankaran regions in Azerbaijan.

Ports, fisheries, agricultural areas, and energy infrastructure in these areas have been seriously affected.

The decline in water levels at Baku and other seaports has made it more difficult for vessels to enter and leave, making additional costs for dredging channels unavoidable. All of this has created serious challenges for logistics and energy infrastructure at the ports of Baku and Sumgait.

In recent years, the rapid decline in the Caspian Sea level has caused river mouths along the Neftchala coast to retreat, making it more difficult for fisheries to operate. Rising water temperatures and reduced water flow at the mouth of the Kura River have led to a sharp decline in fish stocks.

In the Lankaran coastal zone, the falling water level is damaging agriculture and ecosystems. Thus, the shallowing of the Caspian Sea is negatively affecting both the natural environment and people’s daily lives in Azerbaijan’s coastal areas.

— There has been a critical decline in the populations of Caspian seals and sturgeon. How are pollution and shallowing currently affecting the habitats of these endangered species? What projects does IDEA have in this area?

— The populations of the Caspian seal and sturgeon, which are endemic species, are currently on the verge of critical decline. The shallowing of the sea is reducing their habitats, while natural and, primarily, anthropogenic pollution is weakening both their breeding grounds and food chains.

As a result of climate warming and the decline in sea level, the areas where Caspian seals give birth on ice have decreased by up to 80%. The bioaccumulation of heavy metals and pesticides in seals as a result of pollution, as well as food shortages caused by declining fish stocks, are among the main reasons for the decrease in their populations.

In recent years, sturgeon populations have also been experiencing a sharp decline due to the shallowing of the sea, pollution, and illegal fishing. As shallowing limits access to river mouths during the breeding season, the natural spawning habitats of sturgeon are becoming smaller, resulting in a decline in their spawning resources.

Since 2011, as part of fish-release campaigns organized by IDEA, more than 10 million fish fry have been released into natural water bodies. In addition, numerous coastal clean-up campaigns have been carried out with the participation of thousands of volunteers.

These activities help reduce the risk of fish, seals, and other aquatic animals becoming trapped in fishing nets and dying.

— If we fail to save the Caspian Sea over the next 10–20 years, what environmental and economic consequences could the region face?

— If real measures are not taken to protect the Caspian Sea over the next 10–20 years, the region could face an environmental crisis.

A sharp decline in the sea level, climate warming, and increasing pollution threaten not only coastal areas but also the ecological balance and sustainable development of the entire region.

In this regard, the measures to be taken should aim both to partially prevent the expected risks and to adapt to potentially unfavorable conditions. However, without regional cooperation mechanisms, adaptation strategies will remain limited at the national level.

The Tehran Convention, its new protocols, and emerging initiatives can establish a unified approach to protecting the Caspian Sea. If these mechanisms are strengthened, it will be possible to achieve real and sustainable results for the ecological stability of the Caspian Sea and the socio-economic future of the region.