Changes in the level of the Caspian Sea over recent decades have been accompanied by alternating periods of decline and rise. Against the backdrop of the current decline in sea level, various views have been expressed regarding the causes of this process and its future dynamics.

This was stated in an interview with AZERTAC by Mirnuh Ismayilov, Head of the Landscape Studies and Nature Management Laboratory at the Institute of Geography under the Ministry of Science and Education, Doctor of Geographical Sciences and Associate Professor. He noted that fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level are shaped by a number of factors and that the possibility of a new period of rising sea levels in the future cannot be ruled out.

Our interviewee noted that the changes observed in the Caspian Sea level over recent decades are associated with a combination of factors, and it is difficult to explain the process by a single cause:

“Three main stages have been observed in the level of the Caspian Sea since 1978. Until 1978, the sea level generally declined. Between 1978 and 1995, an increase in the sea level was recorded. After 1995, the Caspian Sea level began to decline again, and the decrease currently exceeds 3 meters. The causes of fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level are complex. It is difficult to attribute them specifically to a single factor.”

The department head of the Institute said that changes in precipitation and temperature are also important for studying the processes taking place in the Caspian Sea. According to the scientist, his research has revealed a prolonged period of drought in the long-term precipitation trend. At the same time, an increasing trend in temperature indicators has been recorded since the 1980s.

“Nevertheless, during the period in question, the Caspian Sea level went through three different stages. This demonstrates that the causes of the process are multifaceted,” the geographer and scientist emphasized.

M. Ismayilov stated that fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level may continue in the future and that the possibility of another rise following the current declining phase should be taken into account:

“The study of changes in the Caspian Sea level should not be limited to assessing the current situation; it should also include measures to prepare for future changes. This process will continue, and the decline in sea level may be replaced by another rise in the future. Therefore, it is important to study the processes taking place along the Caspian coast during both rising and falling periods and to adapt people’s lifestyles and economic activities to fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level.”